Why the Indian elections 2019 reminds us of the US election of 2016.
Can historic upsets in two of the worlds largest democracies have uncanny similarities in the run up to elections. India 2019 vs USA 2016. (Of course the Indian elections are yet to start, but the story is already in the writing).
Donald trump, someone the liberal media called a clown and ridiculed who had a passion for putting his foot into his mouth and be trolled for it. He went on to appear decisive and did appeal to the section of the so called “forgotten men and women” or the “silent Trump voters”. Most of the attacks against Trump was personal and attempting to characterize him as a foolish man attempting to rule over a sophisticated and mature country. The land of the free, the intellectuals, the human rights crusaders and the most powerful military in the world at the hands of Trump would be a shame and a doom.
Trump didn’t have the support of the literate, the elite, the intellectuals or the liberal media establishments. He was an outsider, a nobody who only had a name recognition, a reality star, the flamboyant and brash billionaire with a big mouth for a brand. You would think we are saying he is more like Modi, but you would be wrong, since we are not comparing personalities here, just the circumstances of someone being not considered and laughed at.
Those few who supported an alternative were shy to voice their opinion and the few who did were shunned, their integrity questioned, their shows or business cancelled having to suffer humiliation for supporting a fool and a loser, who had no chance to win an election. The silent supporters slowly turned into trolls as he won states after states during the primaries and bulldozing his opponents and leaving them to pick the ashes. He killed the political careers of everyone who stood up on the podium besides him.
Let Trump be Trump was the mantra in the Trump campaign. His supporters quickly turned into fans, he was talking to the silent majority, the average Joe, who then took it out on his rival Hillary. They grouped together symbiotically and hyper exaggerated everything Hillary did or said and posting it across social media, to show the real face behind her polished political mask. They went all out with ferocity in their attacks, without any coordinated campaign. It was sparks at first, but turned into a full on fire. It was war, it was ruthless, people losing friends and loved ones over their difference in political perspectives and affiliations. Trump supporters were labelled every racist pronoun that we can come up with. He himself being the image of Hitler. It would be considered the most divisive election in America’s history yet.
Hillary Clinton, on the other hand was touted as the obvious and apt choice, there is no alternative (TINA), and specially not in favor of Trump. All pollsters just counting numbers in the air since it was a walk over for her. The democratic machinery had been well liberated by the past 2 terms of Obama, who was idolized and epitomized. She had the support of minorities, the super delegates, the cities and towns were painted blue, she just needed to work on variations of her election day victory speech, her supporters shouted in the media.
Her own political career, her speeches of the past, things that she said in private, but all were easily forgiven. However there was something that was looming over her head, the email scandals, for which a few months before the elections she had gotten a clean chit from the FBI director himself, saying there was no case to be made. Democrats stuck with her all through, since the alternative was Trump.
Trump took this one indefensible weakness to which no one had a valid rhetoric and hammered it down. Gave her the nickname ‘Crooked Hillary’, and guess what? it stuck. It resonated, energized the Trump campaign, who wore hillar-ious (pun intended) t-shirts and placards. It may have even brought over with people who were undecided who were not buying everything about Hillary’s credibility of being the most seasoned and qualified politician that America would ever elect in November.
But just before the elections, in-fact less than 10 days before, Trump got a significant punch from the news that the FBI would reopen the Hillary email case as new evidence had come into picture. Trump got his opening, his poll numbers were falling as even his supporters except the hard core ones had given up hope. But this gave him hammering power and he went on the offensive, promising to deal with Hillary and all those who have shielded her. There can not be one rule for regular Americans and one for the rich and powerful. How can America elect an incompetent President, she may have checked all the boxes, but she failed in covering up her scandal and killed transparency and subvert the process of law. He helped distance her from the average Joe and Jane and created a new cry to “Drain the Swamp”.
Rahul Gandhi, many seas and oceans away in India, who the pompous media, opposition and trolls label pappu (loser) and are dismissive may have the same impact on the changing electorate. There is a story to be told here, and hence it’s being written. We hear the same in India, lovingly coined TINA (there is no alternative), so vote for Modi. The most qualified and charismatic leader that India has had in decades. From a personality comparison Modi is more like Trump, bulldozing his opponents but not all by himself, but by a well managed campaign. Creating slogans that resonate like “Ache din, aane wale hai” — “Good days are going to come”. Modi has political charisma, no doubt, if you listen to him, you start to believe him. It’s an art and he has mastered it well with misdirection and an underlying message of me or no one.
A well marketed campaign and an army of paid and fan trolls and followers, who are aggressive, they bullied everyone who questioned Modi’s credibility or his character. They were mesmerized and were willing to go all out for Modi with their die hard support across social media. The liberals on the other hand saw him as a marketing genius who was selling paper dreams and castles in the air. They however where trolled, threatened or abused into silence. Never has India seen so much viciousness in social media or political discourse as it has over the past 5 years of Modi realm.
Even when substantially negative news about Modi’s failure in economic revival, black money, demonetization, faulty GST, job creation, rural & farmer distress, rapes, lynching or communal disharmony, surgical strikes or anything else, it simply would not shake his supporters. They had become an enraged and outwardly hateful bunch. They could not believe that their choice had failed them. A man who had complete majority in both houses of the parliament, was not able to achieve his promises. They went on the offensive, labeling anyone who questioned Modi as an intolerant Anti-National. Someone who wanted Modi to fail, because they really wanted India to fail. Given India’s justice system, this soon turned violent from mere threats with columnists and journalists symbolically executed to bring fear across the spectrum of sane voices which argued with facts and numbers about Modi’s inability to run the country.
Modi’s support is like that of Hillary, loyalists in aberrations. Rahul Gandhi the obvious foolish Trump equivalent. Take note, in India the tables are turned, the man in power is the right wing RSS affiliated poster boy Narendra Modi. He came to power on the promise of Vikas (prosperity) for everyone. The Modi wave, which the liberals in India had to sit back and watch as their rationale was systematically bulldozed as they could not support an incumbent corrupt government. The 2G scam, which supposedly accounted for 1.4 lakh crore in loss to the exchequer, had given great talking points to the opposition who promised to drain the swamp of corruption from 10 Janpat (official residence of former Congress President, Sonia Gandhi).
The liberals in India were quickly side lined and the media took on the saffron agenda. The right wing media was voting on behalf of the voters for their new found love of the right wing supremo Narendra Modi. Once in power, he quickly replaced every aspect of the democratic system and set in motion to overthrow or tame those who opposed his narcissistic views, this is expected but not at the interest of the nation. Across all democratic institutions those loyal to Modi were promoted or appointed out of turn, to ensure that the system would work to his favor.
He quickly controlled every institution from finance, defense, infrastructure, think tanks to investigation and enforcement agencies. You name a democratic institution and it was Modi-fied. The liberal media which tried to stand its ground, were caught in the Modi net, lost readership, viewership and defamation law suits thrown at them to subdue them. They reluctantly felt silent to this onslaught was beyond their comprehension. People hoped for someone to stand up and take the fight to Modi, but no one dared, at least from the media. Another thing common between US and Indian election is the partisan of the 24x7 media houses. It did not split right in the middle, but it split almost 25% vs 75% in Modi’s favor. Independent media did not have the voice or the credibility to inflict even an ant’s bite on Modi’s hold. He went on to wipe India across state elections in saffron colors.
In many ways, this reminds us of how Obama padded up different agencies with liberal loyalists which would forever break the republican’s in the years to come. Obama had set in motion a system that would keep power in the hands of the Democrats and which ensured that Hillary was screened by every institution. The sheer misuse of institutions were visible from the FBI to the Justice department, from the corporate to the bureaucrats, to the media.
Then came the elections of 2016 and the nomination of Trump whom the media laughed out loud. The media bashing did not hold true to the simple scrutiny of what the man said and what the media portrayed. Slowly but surely a clear divide in the media’s bias reporting emerged. The ‘no burger’ lady was chosen as the breaker of glass ceilings. The democratic elections rigged at all levels to favor her, including the super delegates coming much earlier than normal to support her candidacy even before the primaries had started. She didn’t need credibility on the ground, when she had everyone voicing for her. She was the de facto winner of this presidential elections. Not a single mainstream poll predicted a win for Trump.
She had the money, the funding, the media and the Obama bureaucracy behind her. Praising and exaggerating the perils of what would happen to the country if a loser like Trump was elected to the highest office were discussed across all media day in an day out. No one spoke about Clinton’s own achievements or her failures in any details. She was the chosen and anointed one and all liberals would have to fall down and kiss the floor she walked on. All Donald Trump had was a big mouth and an appeal that grew stronger and stronger as the days passed, but would it ever be strong enough?. He coined the ‘Make america great again’, the branding was brilliant but not many willing to wear them on their shoulders lest they be shunned as a bigot supporter, or having lack of any sensibility.
He didn’t have an army of paid trolls but a swelling of ground support and his rallies got bigger and better. The crowds started to love the man who was taking on this giant machinery of liberals. Not that he was sensible, but most definitely the most entertaining. They would appear laid back and not pushy, they would dare not speak because they would be shunned to be seen supporting him as being a racist. His coverage was 90% negative except on a few right wing channel show on Fox News. He had enough enemies in CNN, Washington Post, MSNBC and others. The internet voices that supported trump were silent at first, but gained momentum towards the end, and then went all out creating memes against the Clinton campaign. Those memes gave counter punches to the paid tweets and propaganda that the liberals were peddling against Trump. There is always only one winner when it comes to trolling and the brilliant ones always win.
Paid trolls still have to work within a boundary so as to not spoil Clinton’s good name, for her mistakes, they could not defend Clinton, but then Trump definitely was not a good option for the country. Not because he was incompetent as a politician, but he was a buffoon and a loser. Polls after polls, Clinton was clearly the only front runner, the next first ‘Lady President’ magazine were being printed in eager anticipation of her victory.
Yet a few saw the numbers were biased and that the silent voters weren't counted, yet gave their favorable verdict as a walk over for Clinton. To his credit, Trump said, he wasn’t in it for himself, he was in it for the people, the same people whom he could relate to, even though he was a billionaire. He wanted to give them justice, to lift those who have fallen and are not being heard a voice.
Rahul Gandhi now promises, NYAY (justice) a government funded welfare scheme to lift the truly poor from their miseries. In less than a week 30% of the people surveyed had heard the message, even though the media did nothing but to invite staged shows to discredit it as nothing but a bag of lies.
Rahul Gandhi went on the offensive, fighting with and without alliance like a man who had nothing to lose and everything to fight for just like Trump. The liberal media as if it got a short in the arm, started to look at the possibility of a revival of Congress strengthened its wings. It has started, guns blazing by many media outlets which have started questioning the Modi achievements of last 5 year openly. Just like Trump, Rahul just needed to bring back the Congress voted who had distanced themselves and voted for Modi in the hope that he would truly reform India. Now the disenfranchised voters needed to be roped back in, the voter base was always there, just that they were not loud or optimistic of a Rahul option against the mighty Modi.
However, the Modi campaign has fallen flat, with no real slogan to get behind and hence looking more and more shaken. They have launched a film, a series and a couple of free channels all in the name of NaMo or Narendra Modi. The Election commission has taken a backseat, having a new head at the top recently appointed by Modi to ensure that elections are fair. Fair to him that is, which is why they review everything Modi does for days and give only guidance and mild warnings or say nothing at all. An election officer who searched Modi’s helicopter was promptly suspended without any due process, whereas for everything else, due process would be followed.
This song is short, catchy, inspiring resistance and seeking justice all in one. It is simply brilliant from a campaign song perspective. Just for comparison, look at the 2014 congress election campaign song, which is easily forgotten and was forgotten. NYAY is a great cry, a cry for justice.
It is known that the Chief Election Commissioner is a Modi man, and loyal to a fault. The ECI worked proactively against Modi’s opposition that they cancel or object even days before book launches, events or statements. Even the Congress campaign song was objected to before its launch.
Even under such preposterous conditions, the Congress tries to play by the book and obliges, they are definitely the epitome of democracy and democratic values. They may not respect the actions of narrow minded government loyalists, but respect the institutions that represent them and modified their song. However too bad EC, the social media will pick it up, highlight it and slap it on your supreme leaders face.
It’s a shame when the defenseless do not need defense but the liberals who are justified in their ask are snubbed and backed into a corner. Opposition to Modi comes at a high price, with CBI (central bureau of investigation) and ED (enforcement directorate) raiding only opposition candidates across the country to give the impression of a corrupt opposition. If this can not be seen as a way to stifle democracy, then what is. No one wants to question why corruption exists even after 5 years of a Modi government. (That’s so illogical)
Coming back to our story, for the silent majority, Rahul Gandhi now seems to be like any one of us who too can’t fight the machinery of the political might. He gets beaten down, his mistakes or mistakes in his speeches highlighted to taunt and rant at him. He seems to want to speak for us, when he is crushed, we are all crushed.
Politics and votes are completely different matter, so sympathy may not alone win elections with the masses. But like in every country, the silent are the majority, and they may be swayed by his compassion over grandeur of Modi. Chennai witnessed a humble man, a man they could relate to and fell in love with him when he visited an all girls (christian )college a month or so back.
So what about the “Crooked” narrative of Trump does Rahul have up his sleeves. The Chowkidar Chor Hai (The watchman is a thief) jab. Modi had coined it for himself saying he would be a watchman over the nation but today it bugs the hell out of him. Foolishly, instead of distancing himself from it, like all other promises, he double downed on it, starting the “Main bhi Chowkidar” (I am also a watchman) campaign. That was the “I am with her” equivalent, a lackluster and self humiliating campaign. He even went ahead and renamed himself as Chowkidar Narendra Modi on his social media handles. Bizarre as it may sound, the Chowkidar Chor hai (Watchman is the thief) has become main stream. It’s like you can’t hold back yourself from saying “chor hai” (thief) when you hear Chowkidar (watchman).
Its a cry, its what a movement against a political king needed.
Now the Achilles heel for Modi is the Rafael scam. Purchase of jet fighters from France’s Dassault which originally was at a cheaper price and higher numbers and a contract for local manufacture by HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited- a govt entity) suddenly being shifted to Anil Ambani (a business man and a close friend of Modi). There is no needs to speculate, it clearly appears like quid pro quo, and not unexpected, but defended poorly and which gave rise to the Chowkidar chor hai quip before the campaigns. As in the case of Hillary, the institutions controlled by him had given Modi a clean chit, and even the Supreme Court, had said, there is no crime as the regularized procedures for defense purchases appears to have been followed and any interruption by the ruling government can not be considered a crime.
Surprise, one day before the elections, the Supreme Court re-opened the case as some new evidence that the institutions actually refused and refuted Modi’s meddling on the deal, were side tracked and pushed aside was taken into account by the court. Now that would give reason for procedural lapses and an investigation may be initiated by the courts to see if crimes were committed to benefit the said business man.
But given that the courts are also scared, and they rose up to save democracy and independent functioning of the country by giving an unprecedented open press conference less than a year back doesn’t give the SC much spine. We saw how helpless they were, so how will they help the society at large, and give free and unbiased judgement.
The courts have not said anything more than they will review the petition similar to FBI saying it will review the new evidence against Hillary, but the timing is precariously nostalgic of the events of Oct 2016. Modi may get a clean chit in a few days days time when the court reviews it, but by that time the nail in the coffin of Modi or rather Chowkidar Chor Hai would have been drilled down shut and there would be no come back from it as the votes would have been cast by then. But since Indian politics is long drawn across almost 50 days, its hard to say how Modi will hit back and get his voter base back to its 2014 strength.
Given that Rahul Gandhi was trying hard to break out of his stereotype and gave a powerful speech at Gala, Bihar two days before the eve of elections says that the similarities of 2016 maybe playing out here as well. This new energized congress with the “Naya” (justice) campaign on their side and Chowkidar chor hai quip have it all as far as electoral specter is concerned to take on Modi.
Let us therefore approach this election with the same amount of polarization as that of 2016 US Election and say that you may see an upset, such that Modi will go to the Himalayas just like Hillary went to the forests after her upset. Media will not be able to digest it, the haters and bigots who were empowered by the great leader will cry tears of blood. Rahul Gandhi might very well become the next Prime Minister purely on the basis that the Congress may become the single largest party once again. He may unite the others and lead India with drastic reforms that are so badly needed in India after almost 5 years of Modi rule.
History may even be written as such that it was Pandit Nehru (Rahul Gandhi’s great grandfather and President of the Indian National Congress) who wrestled freedom from the hands of the mightiest empire (the British) and it was his great grand son Rahul Gandhi and President of the Indian National Congress, who took back India from the hands of the mightiest politician (Modi).
Another point that’s important to mention is the Russian (arch nemesis of the US) connection that Hillary went on about Trump, it just wouldn't stick, but they started an investigation during the election against trump. Similar rhetoric has been started by Modi, by saying Congress is in cahoots with Pakistan (Russian equivalent for India) whereas the reality is that Modi’s National Security adviser's son has a business partnership with a Pakistani national out of Dubai. There are so many deja vu moments here of the similarities between the two elections. If Modi loses, many of us can now talk in our WhatsApp chat rooms again without being termed anti-national or hearing Go to Pakistan.
The results could be that Modi wins a second term but even by biased poll pandits and voice on the ground, the Modi wave is not there and it would be difficult for BJP to get a total majority and would have to build a fractured coalition who would threaten to pull out and pull Modi down every time he goes out of line.
We can hope that this mania of Modi ends here and now and that would only happen on 23rd of May 2019. Maybe the pollsters will get it wrong again and the results will be that Modi is ousted out of Delhi and humiliated everywhere such that he would not even want to continue on as an minister in parliament or as the opposition leader. Hillary and Modi, are their stories intertwined, we will have to wait and watch.
It could also be that as said before, that India may get a new Prime Minister in Rahul Gandhi.
To many Rahul Gandhi as a Prime Minister may not be acceptable given his lack of detailed thinking, but to the silent majority, his simplicity is his biggest appeal. One can be sure that Congress party has always attracted, elevated and supported intellectuals who may even dissent at times, which will benefit the nation.
It is idiotic to think that the development that happened under Congress rule especially of UPA 1 and UPA 2 be written off and any and all credit goes to Modi, as he inherited a growing economy. It was Modi who put a wrench in a growing economy and a resilient nation with his demonetization and haphazardly implemented GST schemes.
A return of the Congress party is not all that bad for a nation of 130 Crore people from diverse cultures, religions and races. India should never be mukt (free) of the Congress party and it should be seen as a party that has given tall and eminent leaders through out history and will continue to do so.
So to conclude, with Trump the Republicans came back to power in an unbelievable come back, its our humble belief backed by reasoning and election patterns that we will see the come back of the Congress this time and if any one rightfully deserves to be the PM, it would be Rahul Gandhi. How the numbers play out, we will know soon.
This is what is happening to BJP — infighting and these pictures don’t paint a good picture for a ruling party’s ‘All is well’ and therefore coming back to power narrative.
Below is another example of why the Chowkidar Chor hai, is a Crooked Hillary simili. Whenever someone says Crooked, you think Hillary, similarly when you say Chowkidar, people are tempted to shout Chor hai, even if they dont dare to do it loudly.
Along with the movie on PM Narendra modi being banned and the Namo channel being banned, EC has taken notice of the arrogance of Modi’s hypocrisy possibly the writing on the wall maybe clear to the EC, that this election can not be won by Modi.
This article requires a lot of edits for grammar, spell checks, fine tuning of words for the essence of this article to be conveyed, but this is published as is on April 10th 2019 keeping in mind that it needed to be said before the elections began on April 11th. There is a Trump moment in India and it may favor Rahul.
Update April 20 2019:
Doesn’t this remind you of the Hillary Clinton campaigns?Where she couldn't fill small auditoriums for her speeches.
The Supreme Court Chief Justice has now being accused of sexual harassment and this might be a way to silence him or make him run for cover. Who knows, it might be a genuine case or a fraud, but the fact remains, that this does not sit well with democracy as the CJI’s (chief justice of india) ruling on any matter going forward will be taken with a pinch of hypocrisy, as a judge delivering justice to all except himself.